Light blogging expected
Blogger's dilemma: many, short and often; or longer, fewer and (ideally) better?
Livingstone admits London's transformation from an outsider to a potential winner since the bid was launched in 2003 has surprised him.
"Four years ago, I thought with all the fiasco of the Dome, Wembley and Pickett's Lock that we didn't have a chance of winning this, but we'd get resources for London out of it," he said.
On June 10, the National Audit Office published a report showing how the companies that had built the Norfolk and Norwich hospital had, as well as making stupendous profits, legally walked off with an additional payment of £73m by exploiting the gap between the financial risk the government said they had taken on and the risk they had really shouldered. It wasn't as if the government didn't know this was coming: in June 2001, a summary of leaked documents that showed this was going to happen was published in this column. The Treasury sat back and watched.
On June 9, the Health Service Journal published an extraordinary admission by a senior civil servant in the Department of Health. PFI deals, Bob Ricketts revealed, were locking the NHS into 30-year contracts for services that might become useless in five. "I've seen some awfully grand PFI schemes," he warned, "that are starting to give us a real problem."
Citizens Advice said, in the most extreme cases, families had been threatened with repossession or eviction, and CAB staff had had to arrange Salvation Army food parcels for others because they did not have enough money left to eat.
No handouts here - we're talking fine wines amassed in cellars over the years. In around 10 months from now, owners of these collections will be able to put them into self-invested personal pensions (Sipps) - where they will earn instant tax relief and boost the retirement funds of the wealthy. This is thanks to "A-Day" - a new plan that allows sophisticated investors to pull fancy levers to engineer better pensions.
From 6 April next year, these investors will also be able to squeeze buy-to-lets, their homes and even commodities such as gold into their Sipps - and again enjoy the tax relief.
But for the average worker, the treats on offer are less tantalising. Being able to place half your annual salary in a pension fund sounds great, but who can afford to do so in practice? What about finding the money for bills and mortgages?
However, there is one serious long-term critique of tax credits. They are a massive hidden subsidy to low pay, allowing employers to pay sub-survivable wages in this most unequal of EU countries. (When did the CBI ever murmur a word of thanks?) The only countries that have succeeded in all but abolishing child poverty - the Nordic nations - created societies far more equal in pay from top to bottom. There is no known or imagined economic model that can abolish child poverty while the rich soar ever further away at the top, leaving growing numbers of people trapped in low pay at the bottom. Tax credits have taken a million children out of poverty - but not a single economist thinks tax credits alone can do the heavy lifting to reach the other 3 million. The very low minimum wage - £4.85 - would need to rise to become a living wage. Gradually incomes would have to converge nearer the middle, in the Swedish way. And taxes would have to rise. Everyone knows it, no one in government says it.
The heart of the problem is that the large mainstream NGOs and here we do not mean War on Want, the World Development Movement and Christian Aid - are not putting serious pressure on the G8. For example, when anti-poverty campaigners call for"cancellation of poor countries' unpayable debts", this leaves undefined what, exactly, is 'unpayable' (quite a weasel word) and concedes that the vast populations of lower-middle income countries will suffer under indefinite debt peonage. NGO and rock star endorsements of the partial debt relief gimmick announced by Gordon Brown and the G8 finance ministers on June 11 illustrate the confusion.
LAMBETH & SOUTHWARK RESPECT COALITION
RESPECT for Youth – Stop Criminalising Young People
RESPECT for Hoodies and against ASBOs!
RESPECT call for young people, youth workers, trade unionists, and pensioners to unite to stop criminalising our young people
JOIN THE PROTEST AGAINST THE HOODY BAN
SATURDAY 25TH JUNE 1PM ELEPHANT & CASTLE SHOPPING CENTRE
MEET 1PM NORTHERN LINE EXIT OF TUBE - FOLLOW SIGNS FROM THERE.
This action is supported by ASBO Concern, Lambeth & Southwark pensioners' convention, and by local teachers and youth workers.
Following Bluewater shopping centre's blanket ban on anyone donning a hoody on May 11, all sorts of unusual suspects are joining the Bluewater backlash. Richard and Judy, told Channel Four viewers that they'd attempt to breach Bluewater's new dress code and wear hoodies to see if they'd be stopped from entering the shopping Mecca.
Broadcaster James O'Brien from London's LBC radio station appealed for senior listeners on Thursday who genuinely wear hoodies to join his army of "hoody-wearing pensioners".
On May 13, bosses at the world-famous Elephant and Castle shopping centre in south London issued an all-out ban on hoodies yet no-one takes action to stop them being sold.
HOODY BAN IS NOT THE ANSWER TO STOP ANTI-SOCIAL BEHAVIOUR
Children are the subject of more antisocial behaviour orders than adults, leading commentators to warn that the Government is in danger of making it a "crime to become a child". Latest figures show that children have become the prime target of antisocial behaviour orders with more than half of Asbos issued between June 2000 and March 2004 against children - 1,177 against children and 1,143 against adults
* Forty-two per cent of all Asbos were breached up to December 2003, compared to 36 per cent for the period up to December 2002
* A Mori poll this month found that while 89 per cent of people support Asbos, only 39 per cent feel they are effective
* The British Institute for Brain-Injured Children says at least five children with autism and other brain disorders have been given Asbos
RESPECT recognises a growing tension on estates and in public areas where young people are forced to congregate and play on the streets. However, we believe that this is due to over-crowded homes and the increasing privatisation of our public areas and facilities. Over recent years, across the country we have seen the number of council-run centres privatised or closed. Private centres now focus on adult fitness facilities to maximise income, dramatically reducing the opportunities for individual and team sports for young people.
We do not believe that the scapegoating of young people is a solution. Instead, these policies will lead to a generation of working class people getting written off. Already, studies are showing that young people are experiencing more emotional problems due to feeling that they 'have no future'. New Labour policies of privatising our homes, education and health service, and of cutting welfare spending, pushing the burden onto individual working class families has nothing to offer young people.
RESPECT believes that the solution lies with the following:
The provision of properly funded youth service and community facilities that fulfil the needs of young working class people. We will join with young people in local communities, tenants, trade unions and other such bodies and individuals calling for an end to the privatisation of these services, and for reinvestment in facilities and jobs
· An end to ASBOs. Instead the money used to publicise and police ASBOs, curfews and banning orders can be diverted into funding extra facilities
· Decent, secure jobs with a future. This includes a minimum wage set at the European Union Decency threshold (currently £7.40 an hour). Instead of encouraging high street 'McJobs', the government should be investing in apprenticeships, with jobs upon completion, for young people.
· Free, comprehensive education for all young people, from nursery to university. This includes the ending of tuition fees in higher education and the PFI funding of schools
JOIN THE PROTEST SATURDAY 25TH JUNE ELEPHANT & CASTLE SHOPPING CENTRE
The garment has been vilified as a symbol of Britain's feral youth, but a group of about 50 protesters wore their "hoodies" with pride yesterday.
They were objecting at the Elephant and Castle shopping complex, in south London, which banned hoodies in mid-May in an effort to crack down on gangs and petty crime.
To call Disley Jones, who has died at the age of 79, a stage designer is to understate his talents. He was a theatrical polymath, bursting with informed and idiosyncratic ideas on text, performance and direction; moreover, at any moment he would unhesitatingly take up a hammer or paintbrush and work through the night to put the show on...
He remained a Bohemian in the old style. He was a fixture in Soho's French House pub, where his photograph graces the walls and where he would hold forth unstoppably on theatre, films, arts, sex and politics, in which he stayed faithful to a non-specific, liberal, far left line. He missed no new play or film, and despite no visible means of support apart from his state pension, somehow managed to live with an air of grand extravagance. Only three days before his sudden death, he had returned from a holiday in the south of France, short of cash but full of new ideas.
As he grew frailer, he played old age as a rewarding character role. He and Cornish had lived in a sequence of carefully chosen and spectacularly furnished homes, though Disley spent his last years in sheltered housing in Kennington. He took it in his stride, planted a garden, and threw occasional parties for his startled fellow-residents.
"Our task now and in the years to come is to move Europe from the old trading bloc to the new global Europe it can become and we should do so under the banner of a pro-European realism, where Europe itself becomes more competitive, more flexible and more enterprising.
"This is a long-term programme of economic reform that we will now promote in our presidency of the EU."
Reality TV show Big Brother portrays role models with values that inspire its viewers, the chief executive of Channel 4 has said.
Andy Duncan said the show offered positive values, transformatory experiences and examples of personal self-improvement and growth.
The contestants had honesty, integrity, constancy and kindness, he added.
Mr Duncan, a practising Christian, was talking to a Christian group about his channel's religious output.
Gordon Brown today revealed he hopes to take part in a massive demonstration during the G8 summit.
The Chancellor said he had been invited to the Make Poverty History march in Edinburgh next month.
Mr Brown is the first Cabinet member to state that he is likely to attend the rally, which is expected to bring up to a million people on to the streets of the Scottish capital...
When he was asked about the march, Mr Brown said: “I have been invited to speak at one event and I hope that I will be able to do so.”
The government's tax credit system is subject to "completely unacceptable" errors, Citizens Advice (CAB) has said.
A third of recipient families have been overpaid - and many forced into poverty when HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) takes back overpayments, the charity said...
CAB's damning report - based on 150,000 cases handled by the charity, which runs the Citizens Advice Bureaux - said that HMRC had "failed to live up to its own standards of information, clarity and efficiency of service" in the administration of tax credits.
In the first year alone, one third of all awards - 1,879,000 - were overpaid by a total of £1,931m, official figures revealed.
The ombudsman - who is in charge of investigating complaints against government departments - was unable to say how many of those had been due to government mistakes and how many had been caused by delays in claimants reporting changed circumstances.
Her report noted that 1,000 officials were currently handling complaints, and said overpayments caused by official errors in the first two years could be written off.
Firstly, there's a logical fallacy, in that it assumes that because Africa received aid and got poorer, the aid caused the poverty. But quite a lot of other things were going on at the same time, so the aid need not have caused the poverty - it could even have relieved a potentially much worse situation. And in fact that's exactly what did happen.
The second reason is that all that $450bn is described as 'aid'. This statement is usually dragged up to criticise today's aid-giving, and the implication is that today's aid is no different from that $450bn. Well, that's not true. Much of that 'aid' was simply bribes the rich countries paid to friendly African regimes not in order to promote development but in order to promote their foreign policy. The 'aid' was not expected to be spent as aid, nor was it. So pointing out that it didn't benefit Africa says nothing about the effectiveness of aid today.
But amid this summer of our discontent there is, still, some cause for optimism. A silver lining rings the clouds in the form of the possibility of a sustained acceleration in Britain’s productivity. It is an enticing prospect that holds out the promise of a transformation in the country’s economic potential. If it is confirmed, it could yet do much to offset the impact of the cyclical slowdown upon which the economy seems to have embarked...
Until last year Britain’s recent productivity record could reasonably be dismissed as dire. It reached a nadir in 2002, when the annual growth of productivity measured by output per worker fell to only 0.7 per cent. Over the first three years of this decade the average figure was only 1.7 per cent. That compares with an average annual rate of 2.8 per cent in the Sixties, the nation’s productivity heyday.
Last year, however, there were signs of improvement. Productivity growth jumped to 2.8 per cent in the second quarter and remained at a respectable 2.2 per cent in the following three months. Admittedly it then slowed again, to 1.7 per cent, in the final quarter of last year. But, as Ms Redwood observes, the news is still encouraging — especially if one focuses on the even better showing of private enterprises, after stripping out the dead weight drag from the public sector. Private sector productivity climbed to an impressive peak last year of 3.6 per cent.
HOUSE prices are rising more slowly than people’s wages, according to a survey of asking prices.
Rightmove, the property website, said that annual house-price inflation fell to just 2.4 per cent this month. This was down from 4.9 per cent in May, and well below the 4.6 per cent annual increase in people’s wages recorded by the Office for National Statistics last week.
Chris Morris and Armando Iannucci could never have known when they made The Day Today that thousands of devotees would so carelessly, crappily copy their model and so many nice old people would be left wondering what the hell just happened as four big men and a camera strode away giggling.
Listen to these men - Bush, Blair and their two bards - and you could forget that the rich nations had played any role in Africa's accumulation of debt, or accumulation of weapons, or loss of resources, or collapse in public services, or concentration of wealth and power by unaccountable leaders. Listen to them and you would imagine that the G8 was conceived as a project to help the world's poor.
I have yet to read a statement by either rock star that suggests a critique of power. They appear to believe that a consensus can be achieved between the powerful and the powerless, that they can assemble a great global chorus of rich and poor to sing from the same sheet. They do not seem to understand that, while the G8 maintains its grip on the instruments of global governance, a shared anthem of peace and love is about as meaningful as the old Coca-Cola ad.
The ideology that speaks through Liddle has total disdain for faith because having faith means having a commitment, a fundamental project. Whereas Liddle, like Aaronovitch and most every other columnist in the British hack pack, demands the right to 'debate'. This is the vacuous non-faith to which Liddle and his ilk pledge allegiance; 'arguably,' he says, 'the most valuable thing we in the liberal West possess is a fervent disagreement about what is good for us as a society.' But there is an inevitable paradox about this that Nietzsche was perhaps the quickest to identify and analyse. How can you make a fundamental commitment of your lack of fundamental commitment? What is left in this situation is the blandly terrifying blankness of the Last Man, the armchair critic at the end of history, engorged on a surfeit of awareness of the past and of cultural difference, unable to commit and to believe even if he wanted to.
It was barely four years ago that grassroots Tories chose Iain Duncan Smith in preference to Kenneth Clarke. Then a walkover had to be arranged for Michael Howard in case he proved too liberal-minded for the local membership to stomach. He spent much of his time as leader - and most of the general election campaign - narrowing the gap between the Conservatives and the British National party. He clearly knew where his core vote lay.
...look at this in narrowly political terms, and the [debt relief] initiative is a triumph. In February, the Americans effectively kiboshed the proposals. Stories appeared that the Chancellor lacked the Prime Minister's silky negotiating skills and had "lectured" Condoleezza Rice. But two weeks ago it became clear that the Americans had shifted and, with them, most of Europe. Whatever the US Secretary of State thinks of Mr Brown, his relationships with the Treasury Secretary, John Snow, and with Alan Greenspan, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, were enough to win the day.
The result is that the Chancellor has shown himself to be as capable of diplomacy as Mr Blair. And it has to be said that Britain being in the lead on this issue has other benefits, too...
He also told delegates that 'around the world three letters send a chill down the spine of the enemy - SAS'. Those letters spelled out one clear message - don't mess with Britain.
He added: 'To the European Court of Human Rights, who criticised the SAS action in Gibraltar, we send another clear message - don't give comfort to terrorists.'
Turning to Conservative election chances, he said Tories should adopt the SAS's famous motto - Who Dares, Wins. 'We dare. We will win,' he declared.
Whitehall thinks that possessing nuclear weapons helps to secure Britain’s position as one of the five permanent members of the United Nations security council. But if the ability to blow up the planet is the qualification for presiding over the world’s peacemaking body, then we should already have rewarded India, Pakistan and Israel with membership and we should be preparing to welcome Iran and North Korea.
It is a dangerous line of argument. We encourage developing countries to believe that we will take them more seriously and invite them to the top table if they acquire nuclear weapons. Indeed, since Pakistan joined the nuclear club and recklessly spread weapons technology to the world’s most terrifying states, General Musharraf, its leader, has been feted by President Bush...
In general the West’s approach to proliferation is desperately muddled. The US gives the impression that it might go to war to stop Iran getting the bomb. That cannot be because it is a Muslim country nor because it gives its secrets to rogue states, since those points apply to Pakistan. Is it because Iran is not a democracy? In the past week it has voted for its president. Musharraf is unelected.
The "problem", if there is one, is far smaller than groups like F4J would have us believe. In 2003, 67,000 contact orders were granted and contact was refused in only 601 cases, less than 1% (source). As The Guardian points out, "in 1998, only 3 per cent of fathers' applications for contact orders were refused. By 2001 this had dropped to 1.3 per cent - that is 713, a figure which barely covers the number of men who murdered their wives and schedule one offenders (child abusers)". You have to ask, if so few cases were resolved with no contact granted, just what the parents in the cases where contact had been refused had done to deserve being refused contact...
Winter fuel bills are likely to soar this year as future gas prices hit their highest-ever level yesterday...
Energy companies said domestic bills would rise again and World Gas Intelligence, an industry analyst, said factories may be forced to shut for "days, weeks or longer in order to cut gas use"...
The former German finance minister, once described by Britain's Sun newspaper as "The most dangerous man in Europe", appeared in pouring rain last week in front of a 40-ton, Soviet-made bronze head of Karl Marx that survives as a "souvenir of communist culture" in the east German city of Chemnitz...
His chin jutting towards the lead-grey heavens, "Red Oskar", the renegade former Social Democrat turned left-wing bogeyman, did his best to confirm the long-held convictions of those present with a withering assault on the near-criminal shortcomings of Mr Schröder's government.
Nothing was spared in his invective. Germany's "neo-liberal" political elite had allowed the nation's public morals to become "rotten and depraved". It had hoodwinked workers into believing that industry had to shed thousands of jobs if it were to remain profitable.
In remarks that will be seized on by Eurosceptics, Mr Juncker insisted that the treaty could not be renegotiated and he suggested that French and Dutch voters had not said no. "I really believe the French and Dutch did not vote no to the constitutional treaty," he said.
Jean-Claude Juncker, the Luxembourg prime minister who holds the rotating EU presidency and who was said to have been on the verge of tears when he heard news of the Dutch vote, summoned Gerhard Schröder for emergency talks.
Health chiefs are asking Scots to donate an extra 20,000 pints of blood amid fears that next month's G8 summit could descend into violence.
Plans have also been drawn up to import blood supplies from south of the Border if rioting breaks out among the huge crowds expected to descend on Edinburgh.
Contrary to the headline in the newspaper last weekend, SNBTS is not
expecting a "blood crisis" to coincide with the G8 Summit and is not expecting a blood shortage as a result of G8.
Unfortunately, we believe there was a misrepresentation of the conversation which our spokesperson had with the journalist.
(1) The financial burden of the operation on rich countries would amount to some 2 billion dollars a year, compared to 350 billion the G8 devote to farming subsidies or 700 billion they spend in military expenditure. Rich countries would thus be willing to spend every year for the announced cancellation half of the amount the US spend every month on their continued occupation of Iraq. Moreover, the US would finance their contribution through their meagre aid for development budget, so they would not even have to find any additional resources... [Emphasis added]
The G8 decision represents a continuation of the HIPC initiative, which means the imposition of heavily neoliberal policies: privatisation of natural resources and of strategic economic sectors to the benefit of transnational corporations; higher cost of health care and education; a rise in VAT; free flow of capital, which leads to capital leaving the country as shown by several UNCTAD reports; lower tariff protection, which leads to thousands of small and middle producers losing their livelihoods because they cannot compete with imported goods.
It was a vote against the idea of European integration, [the British Eurosceptics] say. Well actually it wasn't. In France, many on the left voted against the treaty because for them it didn't integrate enough. It didn't in their view build the kind of protectionist social Europe that they imagine, falsely in my view, would be a strong shield against globalisation.
What’s the betting that Bush’s successor runs on a peace with honour ticket in the next election? And what’s the betting that such a programme trounces a Democratic candidate who’s finally made his or her peace with national security, locked Michael Moore in a cupboard and decided to run on a “militant democratization everywhere” platform?
A number of central and eastern European countries have introduced low flat taxes. Estonia, which I'm planning to visit in a couple of weeks' time, introduced a flat tax back in 1994. Others, like Poland, Slovakia and even Russia, have followed suit.
...All of this would seem to support the claim of Blair’s Commission for Africa that corruption is the single biggest problem facing the continent. Certainly, the private appropriation and reinvestment of loan funds by senior state officials and politicians reached extraordinary heights. Best known is Mobutu Sese Seko, the then dictator of Zaire (now Democratic Republic of Congo), whose personal assets reportedly peaked at $4 billion in the mid-1980s. But simply attributing capital flight to the greed of African politicians hides more than it reveals.
First it was, of course, the great powers who propped up African dictators like Mobutu because they guaranteed Western strategic interests during the cold war. Mobutu was installed in mineral rich Zaire following the CIA-backed assignation of the popular, radical nationalist leader, Patrice Lumumba, and feted by Western governments, corporations and banks for much of his thirty two year reign . Mobutu and others like him were, then, the creatures of exactly the same people who now cry foul about the endemic corruption of Africa’s ‘political class’.
Secondly, the ‘corruption argument’ badly misunderstands the nature of the state in general, and that of Africa in particular. In all post-independence African ountries, the state quickly emerged as a site, if not the site, of capital ccumulation. Those groups in charge of the state were thus not simply ‘politicians’ and ‘bureaucrats’, they were also capitalists. In other words, they were also an economic class and, ultimately, one subject to the exactly same logics and forces as capitalists located in the private sector.
This point is well illustrated by the case of Apartheid South Africa. While the likes of Mobutu were shifting capital North in the early 1980s, so too was big South African business. Ben Fine and Zav Rustomjee have estimated that on average as much as 7 percent of GDP per annum left South Africa as capital flight between 1970 and 1988; an equivalent of 25% of non-gold imports . This was entirely due to the transfer activities of the major corporations like Anglo-American and the Rembrandt Group. And their behaviour was no less illicit than that of the dictators. Shifting private funds out of South Africa in the 1980s not only defied local capital controls but broke the international sanctions regime on Apartheid. As such, the neo-liberal pathologisation of the corrupt black African state, simply does not hold. The private ‘white’ capitalists of South Africa were busy engaging in capital flight as well.
Finally, the ‘corruption argument’ tells us nothing about the wider processes that were driving African capital flight. Fine and Rustomjee argue that the South African corporations shifted their resources in response to a combination of declining opportunities for local investment, particularly following the domestic economy’s descent into crisis, and the new opportunities for financial and other investment opening up in the North . This captures the greater truth. Whether Africa’s capital exporters were located in the public or private sectors, they too were reacting to the deepening crisis of their economies and the gravitational pull of increasingly liberalised money markets located in major financial centres like New York, London or Paris. As such, they were doing no more than chasing profits – the essence of the entire capitalist system.
The chancellor said the significance of the package agreed by the finance ministers of the G7 - G8 countries minus Russia - in London on Saturday went far beyond the $1-2bn (£552m-£1.1bn) of debt relief offered to the world's poorest countries, and included promises of $25bn of extra aid, a timetable for dismantling protectionism and treatment for all HIV/Aids sufferers by 2010.
The assumption that our moral duties and business interests are in conflict is now demonstrably false… I am very keen that we maximise the impact of our shared interest in business and development by working together in partnership… We being access to other governments and influence in the multilateral system – such as the World Bank and IMF… You are well aware of the constraints business faces in the regulatory environment for investment in any country… Your ideas on overcoming these constraints can be invaluable when we develop our country strategies. We can use this understanding to inform our dialogue with governments and the multilateral institutions on the reform agenda.
The right conclusion is that we have an enormous job to do to convince the sincere and well-motivated opponents of the WTO agenda that the WTO can be, indeed is, a friend of development, and that far from impoverishing the world's poorer countries, trade liberalisation is the only sure route to the kind of economic growth needed to bring their prosperity closer to that of the major developed economies.
Labour's development policy is not 'neoliberalism', happy-face or not. They have advocated much higher aid and debt relief, argued against imposing liberalisation on poor countries (either through the WTO or through bilateral treaties), and recently announced an end to conditionality on aid.
Mr Barroso told Bono a lyric from U2 song Zooropa had inspired an article he wrote about the future of Europe.
To applause from Bono, he recited the lyric: "Don't worry baby, it's going to be all right. Uncertainty can be a guiding light."
Perhaps that's what we do, the sick people of London: we travel round on buses, picking fights with one another.
The short version of events is that the poor, working class and indigenous of Bolivia - the country's majority - angered with their natural-resource-rich country having been plundered for hundreds of years refused to see their patrimony plundered one more time. Incensed at the minimal royalties and taxes foreign companies would return to Bolivia in return for the theft of the country's considerable natural gas reserves and inspired by the transformation that Venezuela's Hugo Chavez has shown is possible if resource revenues are invested in social programmes and development, protestors have essentially shut the country down...
Royal Bank of Scotland, Britain's second biggest bank, today reported an increase in provisions to cover bad debt as economic conditions for customers become tougher.
The Edinburgh-based bank has followed rivals, including Barclays, in revealing that credit arrears had grown. However, it insisted there was no cause for alarm and said the figures were "within normal parameters".
Travis, Texas and Dido are among the artists heading the line-up of an anti-poverty concert in Scotland next month, just days after the Live8 shows...
The concert is being seen as the final element of the three- stage campaign to persuade the G8 summit to act on the Make Poverty History campaign.
"It's because of the politics of identity that I can't see the Conservative Party reverting back to the role it had in the Fifties, Sixties and even under Margaret Thatcher as a broad church appealing to people on the middle ground. I cannot see that happening any more. There will have to be realignment.
"I can see a world where there is an authentic party of the nationalist right, an authentic socialist party and several in the centre."